Here is a summary of the papers, I've tried to pull out the meat, and refrained from making comment.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/34_Jason_A_Lowe.pdf">The Role of Sea Level Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous
Climate Change and Issues of Climate Stabilisation</a> Jason A. Lowe1,et al.
The threshold for Greenland ice sheet colapse is 2.7C (2C global), there is a significant probability that this will be breached with all but the lowest CO2 increases.
With a 4xCO2 increase sea level rise is ~5m due to greenland ice sheet melt and 2 m in the next 1000 years.
The uncertanty in the "safe" level of CO2 rise (from the point of view of sea level rise) is very large.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf">Towards a Risk Assessment for Shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline
Circulation</a> Richard Wood, et al.
It is not posible to identify a safe level of CO2 to prevent a THC shutdown.
Models differ on what drives a THC and its mechanisms. Most models indicate that heat flux is more important than water flux.
They are using an ensemble of coupled models (parameters chosen from analysis of HadAM3 ensemble) to produce a range of THC behaviour.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/45_Peter_Challenor.pdf">The Probability of Rapid Climate Change</a> Peter Challenor, et al.
Using an intermediate model (C-GOLDSTEIN), emulator based on Bayesian statistics and Latin hypercube they are seeking to estimate the probability of the
“low probability, high impact events” of a THC shutdown.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/55_Jerry_Blackford.pdf">Reviewing the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem</a> C. Turley, et al.
the oceans have taken up around 48% of anthropogenic CO2. pH of 7.8 by 2100 (down from preindustrial 8.2). Such dramatic changes in ocean pH have not been seen for about 20 million years of the Earth’s history.
Lots of potential effects, but little define data.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/16_Yu_A_Izrael.pdf">Critical Levels of Greenhouse Gases, Stabilization Scenarios, and Implications for the Global Decisions"</a> Yu.A. Izrael &amp; S.M. Semenov
Discusses new stabalisation scenarios and the role of uncertainties in setting stabilization.
They seek to minimise {STABILIZATION COST + RESIDUAL DAMAGE}. Model of multiple stabalisation programmes characterised by start year and implementation time constant, exp(1/Timp).

<a href="">Burning Embers and Beyond: The Role of Typologies in Defining Dangerous Outcomes</a> Farhana Yamin, et al.
Outline and introduction only.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/36_Dr_Peter_Cox.pdf">Conditions for Positive Feedbacks from the land Carbon Cycle</a> Peter M. Cox.
Land bioshere could provide positive feedback as temperature-enhanced respiration overwhelmes CO2-enhanced photosynthesis. A simple model for each grid box with effecitve parameters of respiration and photosynthesis to CO2 and sensitivities of soil respiration and photosynthesis to temperature.
A carbon source-to-sink transitition is inevitable beyond some finite CO2 concentration. The equations are derived and most probable values of parameters found, implying a critical CO2 value of about 550ppm, this is highly dependent on precise variable values, but agrees with a GCM (Cox et al (2000)).


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/20_John_Lanchbery.pdf">Ecosystem Loss and its Implications for Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilisation</a> John Lanchbery.
It appears very likely that species will increasingly become extinct and ecosystems will be lost as a result of little further change in the climate. In the context of the objective of the Convention, it can thus be reasonably be argued that at least some ecosystems are not “adapting naturally” to climate change and that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are already too high.
Of the 587 species showing significant changes in distribution, abundance, phenology, morphology or genetic frequencies, 82% had shifted in the direction expected if they were climate change-induced,

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/46_Simon_L_Lewis.pdf">Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge &amp; Potential Future Scenarios</a>
Undisturbed tropical forests presently functioning as a carbon sink of ~1 Pg C per year.
Global Circulation Models including dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle show tropical forests may become a mega-source of carbon
About ~108 Pg C released form tropical forests due to cutting 1750-2000 (c.f. 283 Pg C from fossil fuels), 553 Pg C residing within remaining tropical forests and soils.
El Nino conditions tend to release CO2 from tropical forests, similar conditions will arise due to GW.
There seems to be a trend to faster growing, light demanding trees which have less dense wood. A change of density of just 0.4% per year would be enough to offset carbon sink. Lianas decrease tree growth and are rising rapidly.


<a href="">Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems</a> Bill Hare.
less than 1C rise OK, 1-2C rise problems in some areas, greater than 2C rise risks increase very substantially involving potentially large numbers of extinctions or even ecosystem collapses, major increases in hunger and water shortage risks as well as socio-economic damages, particularly in developing countries.
At all levels of warming, a large group of the poor, highly vulnerable developing countries is expected to suffer increasing food deficits. It is anticipated that this will lead to higher levels of food insecurity and hunger in these countries.
Over 2oC warming appears to involve a major threshold increase in risk. One study shows risk increasing for close to 600 million people at 1.5oC to 2.4-3.1 billion at around 2.5oC.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/53_Dr_Andrew_Challinor.pdf">Assessing the vulnerability of food systems to climate change thresholds using an integrated crop-climate model</a> A. J. Challinor, et al.
Use of General Large-Area Model for Annual Crops (GLAM) with HadAM3 to simulate growing coditions (soil moisture, growing season, tight temperature events, diurnal variation, etc.).
Results for Indian ground nut control and high temperature tolerant varieties.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/39_Sari_Kovats.pdf">The Global Burden of Disease due to climate change: quantifying the benefits of stabilization for human health</a> D Campbell-Lendrum,et al.
The greatest impacts are likely to be caused by small proportional changes in diseases that currently have major impacts, such as diarrhoea, malnutrition and vector-borne diseases.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/37_Tonje_Folkestad.pdf">Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic</a>, Tonje Folkestad, et al.
bio-physical changes associated with 2C rise = greater than 60°N that ranges from between 3.2 and 6.6°C.
20 million geese and waders will be adversely impacted (45% habitat loss) for 2C rise.
Seems to be based on this <a href="http://www.panda.org/downloads/arctic/050129evidenceandimplicationshires.pdf">paper</a> by Mark New.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/24_Will_Steffen.pdf">Approaches to Defining Dangerous Climate Change: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective</a>
Droughts (agriculture), water resources, coral-reef, biodiversity and sea level rise all are major areas of concern for Australia.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/60_Professor_Coleen_Vogel.pdf">The Economic, Developmental and Livelihood Implications of Climate Induced Depletion of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in Africa</a> Professor Coleen Vogel. et al.
Complex interplay between climate change, climate variability and development.

<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/31_Katharine_Hayhoe.pdf">Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on California under Alternative Emissions Pathways – Key Findings and Implications for Stabilisation</a> Katharine Hayhoe, et al.
HadCM3 and PCM under Alfi and B1 scenarios. Much increased heatwaves, substantial reductions in snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, proportion of dry years up from 32 to 50-64%. Citrus and grape (wine) crops afected. ecosystem movement.
El nino leads to heavy flooding.Stabalisation at 550ppm is on the upper limit of acceptable stress on water supply for regions within California.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/13_Michael_Mastrandrea.pdf">Probabilistic Assessment of “Dangerous” Climate Change and Emissions Scenarios</a> Michael D. Mastrandrea and Stephen H. Schneider
Apply aggregate metric and stakeholder metrics for DAI to probability distributions for global average temperature increase in 2050 and 2100 for each emissions scenario.
One pdf with a dangerous anthropomorhic interference level of 2.85ºC was presented.



<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/14_Malte_Meinshausen.pdf"> On the Risk of Overshooting 2°C</a>, Malte Meinshausen.
The risk of overshooting 2°C equilibrium warming is found to lie between 68% and 99% for stabilization at 550ppm CO2 equivalence.
Only at levels around 400ppm CO2 equivalence are the risks of overshooting low enough so that the achievement of a 2°C target can be termed “likely”.
The next 5 to 15 years might determine whether the risk of overshooting 2°C can be limited to a reasonable range.
Use pdfs of climate sensitivities with significant amounts below 2C.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/38_Myles_Allen.pdf">Observational constraints on climate sensitivity</a> Myles Allen, et al.
that the distribution of atmospheric CO2 concentrations consistent with a given
temperature stabilisation target is much easier to constrain with presently-available observations
than the distribution of equilibrium warming consistent with a given CO2 concentration.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/19_Richard_S_J_Tol.pdf">OF DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE AND DANGEROUS EMISSION REDUCTION</a> Richard S.J. Tol
Lower stabilisation targets also point to dangerous emission reduction: Reduced economic growth would increase vulnerability to climate change.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/30_Steffen_Kallbekken.pdf">Why Delaying Climate Action Is a Gamble</a> Steffen Kallbekken and Nathan Rive
Delaying action will put some of the lower long-term temperature targets out of reach. Those who want to delay are thus gambling that the costs of abatement will drop and the public pressure to abate will increase over time as a result of this delay.
Assuming an agreeement to reduce CO2 emissions at 0.3% a year from 2012, to delay action by 20 years (to 2032) means that to obtain the same temperature in 2100 rates of reduction of 3-7 times will be required.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/22_David_Stainforth.pdf">Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts.</a> David Stainforth, et al.
ClimatePrediction.net results.
The development of analysis methods to assess the probability of such responses is extremely problematic and can not be simply inferred from ensemble distributions.
Northern Europe get wetter winters (10-50%), mediterranean drier summers (10-70%) according to distribution from runs (non-equilibrium response).


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/41_Chris_Jones.pdf">Impact of Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Emission Scenarios to Achieve Stabilisation</a> Chris Jones, et al.
Climate change will affect climate-carbon cycle feedbacks such that permissible emissions to achieve stabilisation will need to be substantially lower than hereto expected. This is especially true for higher stabilisation levels with reductions to total permissible emissions of over 30%.
Need to consider dropoff of ocean uptake and land-carbon going from sink to source.
"On the Risk of Overshooting 2°C" seems far too optimistic!


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/Bert_Metz.pdf">How, and at what costs, can low-level stabilisation be achieved? –An overview</a> Bert Metz.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/25_Toshimasa_Tomoda.pdf">Costs and Technology Role for Different Levels of CO2 Concentration Stabilization</a> Keigo Akimoto and Toshimasa Tomoda
Look at technology for reducing CO2 emissions
The analysis results include that the marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction in 2100 is about 120 and 290 $/tC for 550 and 450 ppmv, respectively, and that CO2 capture and storage is important to reduce the stabilization cost in both the stabilization cases.
Sequestration is the major contributer.


<a href="">Induced Technological Change in the Stabilisation of Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere : Scenarios using a a large-scale econometric model</a> Terry Barker, et al.


<a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/61_Dr_Jon_Gibbins.pdf">Scope for Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies</a> Jon Gibbins, et al.
Carbon sequestration allows keeping on track 2050 UK goal of 60% reduction by 2050.
China increase in coal power stations drawfs UK total emissions.

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<a href="http://www.boincforum.info/boinc/">boinc forum</a> and <a href="http://www.uk4cp.co.uk/">United Kindom</a> team, my climate change <a href="http://www.livejournal.com/users/mike_atkinson/">blog</a>.

Mike, when the classic forum is up again, your post ought to be copied there as a sticky so that it stays up on top and we can refer back to it.

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